By Constitution Staff

Since 1950, the pattern has been clear: whichever party wins the presidency usually loses the governorship two years later in Oklahoma. With Brad Henry term-limited in 2010, Republicans are salivating at the prospect of capturing the governor's mansion this year and several candidates are competing for the Republican nomination.

Congresswoman Mary Fallin is the early favorite for the GOP nomination. While serving as lieutenant governor, Fallin was considered a likely candidate for the governorship in both 2002 and 2006. She opted out of the 2002 contest, deferring to Congressman Steve Largent, and successfully ran for reelection. And in 2006, she decided to run for the seat of Fifth District Congressman Ernest Istook, who vacated the seat to run for governor

The only serious obstacle to Fallin gaining the Republican nomination is State Sen. Randy Brogdon of Owasso. Brogdon has been at the forefront of the conservative movement and attempted to advance many conservative bills through the Legislature and has developed a loyal following among grassroots conservatives. Brogdon sports a 93 percent cumulative conservative rating on the Oklahoma Conservative Index. He first became known to many when he led the effort for the Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) initiative petition in 2005, which would have placed limits on state government spending.

In previous campaigns Fallin has spoken in conservative generalities and avoided taking stands on most contentious issues. While that strategy has proven successful in the past, it is no longer valid the current political climate. Speculation is that Brogdon's challenge from the conservative wing of the GOP has forced Fallin to campaign to the right. And, Fallin earned a 96 percent conservative score in the most recent rating from the American Conservative Union, the highest among the members of the U.S. House of Representatives from Oklahoma. But, prior to being elected Lt. Governor in 1994, Fallin served two terms in the Oklahoma House of Representative where she accumulated a less than conservative record. Her cumulative average score for that four years was a mere 59 percent. Fallin's vote for the bailout in the fall of 2008, before the shift in political waters, is expected to be a point of contention in the race.

Many conservatives wonder which is the true Mary Fallin -- the conservative of today or the more moderate legislator of a decade ago. Perhaps the answer is neither. During her time in the Oklahoma Legislature, when confronted by the staff of the Oklahoma Constitution for an explanation of her non-conservative votes, Fallin's response was always, "the people in my district are for that." It may be that Fallin will take the conservative position as long as that is the position of the people she represents.

Businessman Robert Hubbard of Yukon says he will join Fallin and Brogdon in seeking the Republican nomination. Hubbard, 65, is owner of Hubbard Ranch Supply in Piedmont. He is the former president of the Oklahoma Paint Horse Club and served on the board of directors of the American Paint Horse Association. He has not been active in the Republican Party and has never run for public office. Also announcing for the GOP nomination is Roger Jackson of Oklahoma City, a retired phone company account executive and ex-office equipment store owner. Jackson previously ran for statewide office, State Treasurer in 1990, as a Democrat.

On the Democrat side, Attorney General Drew Edmondson is facing Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins. Edmondson is known as a very partisan attorney general who has been accused of using his office in a very heavy-handed way against political opponents. Askins has a much "kinder and gentler" image, but is still considered a liberal Democrat. During the time she served as a member of the Oklahoma House she earned only a 21 percent Conservative Index rating.

The highly respected Rasmussen national polling firm is conducting polls for the various gubernatorial contests around the country. The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 telephone survey of the Oklahoma race has Fallin earning the support of 51% of likely voters against both Askins and Edmondson. In a general election match-up with Fallin, Askins picks up 37% support, six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) more are undecided. Edmondson gets 36% of the vote against Fallin, with eight percent (8%) favoring another candidate, and eleven percent (11%) are undecided.

In a November election match-up with Brogdon, Askins leads Brogdon 42% to 39%, with 11% undecided and eight percent (8%) like some other candidate in the race. Meanwhile, Brogdon earns 42% to Edmondson's 41% in that match-up, with five percent (5%) opting for another candidate, and 12% undecided. The Brogdon campaign was pleased with the poll at this early stage of the campaign, saying it is a good indication of the Senator's viability in a November match-up against the two Democrats who, along with Fallin, have higher name identification as a result of running state-wide campaigns.

More importantly, Brogdon believes his support among activists within the Republican party bodes well for obtaining the nomination. A straw poll taken in February at a Tulsa County GOP gathering gave Brogdon a 68% to 23% advantage over Fallin. And at a more recent event of the Oklahoma Federation of Young Republicans, Brogdon won with a 55% victory over Fallin's 37%.

On April 14, all of the GOP candidates -- except Mary Fallin who would not attend -- were interviewed by the Oklahoma Conservative Political Action Committee (OCPAC). After responding to the questions by the OCPAC members, Brogdon overwhelmingly gained the group's endorsement on the first ballot.

The candidate filing period will be June 7-8-9. The Primary Election will be held on July 27, the Runoff Primary Election, where needed, will be on August 24. The General Election will be on November 2.