By Constitution Staff

Gov. Brad Henry is midway through his second term, and cannot run again due to term-limits. With the 2010 General Election less than two years away, the contest for the open seat is beginning to take shape.

Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, who is in her first term, will run for governor instead of seeking a second term. In January, Askins, a Democrat, became the first officially announced gubernatorial candidate. Her early decision should prompt a stream of candidates to enter the race for lieutenant governor.

Democrat Attorney General Drew Edmondson has been touring the state and is expected to make a formal announcement for governor later in the year, although Askins' early entry into the race may force him to advance those plans. Also mentioned as a possible contender for the Democratic nomination is state Treasurer Scott Meacham.

On the Republican side, early speculation centers on a decision by Congresswoman Mary Fallin. While serving as lieutenant governor, Fallin was considered a likely candidate in both 2002 and 2006. She opted out of the 2002 contest, and successfully ran for reelection. In 2006, she decided to run for the seat of Fifth District Congressman Ernest Istook, who vacated the seat to run for governor. With the Democrats seizing control of Congress in 2006, and solidifying their control in the 2008 election, being a member of the minority party could make remaining in Congress less attractive to Fallin. However, she was recently elected president of the sophomore class of House Republicans and named the Republican Co-Chairwoman of the bipartisan Congressional Caucus for Women's Issues. If Republicans were to regain control of the Congress, Fallin could be in position for advancement with a new GOP majority.

Congressman Tom Cole, who had an influential role as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, relinquished that position following the GOP loses in 2008. Like Fallin, continued service as a member of the Republican minority may be less attractive. The Norman Transcript has reported that Cole is not expected to run for governor. Another possible candidate mentioned is Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, who lost the runoff for Congress to Fallin in 2006. If Fallin or Cole do run that would, in domino fashion, touch off open races for their congressional posts. For example, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, a solid conservative, is often mentioned for Fallin's position.

Fallin, Cole, and Cornett are all considered to be in the philosophical middle of the Republican Party. The setbacks for the GOP nationally in the last two years, has prompted a debate on the direction the party should take. In his final press conference as President, George Bush express the opinion that the party should become more inclusive. But, many on the conservative side believe the party has become too inclusive and needs to stake out a bold conservative message to provide an alternative to the Democrats. That idea is strong in the Oklahoma Republican Party resulting in many conservatives hoping for a candidate that will return the GOP to the governor's mansion.

State Sen. Randy Brogdon is frequently mentioned as the candidate with the strongest conservative message. Brogdon sports a 94 percent cumulative conservative rating on the Oklahoma Conservative Index for his entire service in the Senate, and scored 100 percent the last several sessions. He has attempted to advance many conservative bills through the Legislature and has developed a loyal following among grass roots conservatives. Brogdon led the effort for the Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) initiative petition in 2005, which would have placed limits on state government spending. He has tried to protect U.S. sovereignty and individual rights, working on issues such as blocking the federal Real ID Act and preventing the NAFTA Superhighway from extending north from Texas. Like many conservative candidates in the past, his challenge would be to raise the necessary funds to compete.

While early attention is focused on the race for governor, there is a long list of secondary offices to be filled in 2010. State Sen. Kenneth Corn (D- Poteau) is term-limited and has announced he will be running for lieutenant governor. There is no word if former House Speaker Todd Hiett, the 2006 GOP nominee against Askins, or former Sen. Scott Pruitt who lost the nomination to Hiett, have interest in the race.

Jason Reese, a moderate Republican who has roundly criticized state Rep. Randy Terrill's attempts to restrict the flood of illegal immigration, has filed papers to run for the post of Labor Commissioner. Former state Senator Kathleen Wilcoxson has been mentioned as a strong possibility to run for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. One would think that the Republicans would field a strong candidate for attorney general whether Edmondson runs for reelection, or gives up the office to run for governor.

History is certainly on the Republican's side in the governor's race. Since 1950, the party that wins the White House usually loses the governor's race two years later (such as Largent losing in 2002 after Bush's win in 2000, or Walter's victory in 1990, following the elder Bush's victory in 1988).