By Tim Bakamjian

June 16, 2026 is Primary Election Day in Oklahoma. Voters will choose candidates for a wide variety of positions. However, perhaps no vote cast that day will be as important, on a long-term basis, as how they vote on Oklahoma State Question 832.

It’s a ballot measure that would untie the state from the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour and instead, increase the state minimum wage to $12 per hour in 2027, $13.50 in 2028, and $15.00 in 2029. After that it would forever lock in automatic increases, tying them to the cost of living in such expensive urban areas as California and New York.

What follows is a question and answer discussion of this issue, and the long-term ramifications if it becomes law.

If it Passes, How High Could Oklahoma’s Minimum Wage Go?

Since it’s indexed to the big-city Consumer Price Index (CPI), it depends on what that number is. Based on their last three-year average, and an analysis by both The State Chamber of Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, it could increase to $35.61/hour in 15 years.

Isn’t That High? It is high, especially for a state such as Oklahoma, which has one of the lowest cost of living rates in the country. In 2024, Forbes reported that $33,966 per year was enough to pay for basic housing, food, health care, taxes and transportation in Oklahoma. In California, a resident would need $53,171 to pay for the same value.

But Aren’t Wages Not Keeping Pace With the Cost of Living?

That’s true and it’s been true for some time. Some reports indicate that 1 in 3 Oklahoma residents make less than a living wage, and that 1 in 7 live at or below the federal poverty level. Plus, while the minimum wage has been unchanged for 17 years, living costs have increased 52 percent.

However, that raises the question of whether raising Oklahoma’s minimum wage would help solve the affordability problem, or are better solutions available to policy makers? Would we be treating the symptom while the real cause remains? Many economists argue that our almighty dollar losing value every year is the real problem, that we’ve abandoned sound, constitutional money for a system built on easy money, inflation and debt. In other words, purchasing power is regularly being stolen from everyday Oklahomans, with no end in sight.

How Does Oklahoma Compare to Other States?

Oklahoma is one of twenty states that still use the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. Most of these are in the Midwest or in the South, where the cost of living is generally less. Nearby states include Texas, Kansas and Louisiana. More than half the states are either raising their minimum wage at some point in 2026 or are considering it through pending legislation, scheduled increases, inflation adjustments or as in Oklahoma’s case, through ballot initiatives.

No state has reduced or even considered lowering their minimum wage for several decades.

Fifteen states have minimum wages rates of at least $15.00 an hour, with Washington, New York, Connecticut, California, Hawaii and New Jersey at or close to $17.00 an hour. California, in fact, has a $20.00 an hour minimum wage for fast food workers at chain restaurants, and an $18.00 to $24.00 base rate for certain health care workers.

Who Favors Raising Oklahoma’s Minimum Wage?

The strongest supporters of SQ 832 and similar measures in other states are people and organizations on the political left, including the Democratic Party. The Oklahoma City chapter of the nation’s largest socialist party, the Democrat Socialists of America, maintains a website devoted to passage of SQ 832. Raise the Wage Oklahoma and Wage Up Oklahoma are groups that organized canvassing and voter outreach in support of a “yes” vote. The Oklahoma Policy Institute is a liberal think tank that has published research in support of it. The Tulsa Community

Foundation, founded by oilman and philanthroper George Kaiser in 1998, has contributed more than $400,000 to the Yes on 832 campaign. Similarly, the left-leaning Shusterman Fund, led by oil heir Lynn Shusterman, has given $375,000 to the cause.

One other group, the Washington D.C-based progressive, nonprofit Hopewell Fund, contributed $50,000 in the first quarter of 2024. Critics, such as Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers, have labeled them a “dark money group” because donors, particularly foreign, can funnel money into ballot efforts without being identified.

Who Opposes SQ832?

Business groups, conservative think tanks and most Republicans are the primary opponents of SQ 832. Chad Warmington, president and CEO of the Oklahoma State Chamber of Commerce, said employers are concerned about the “automatic, open-ended increase being linked to the federal CPI in cities like New York or San Francisco,” which “are not reflective of the actual cost of living in Oklahoma.” State Sen. Kristen Thompson, (R-Edmond), whose family operates two restaurants, says “you can look at California and see what happened to the restaurant industry out there. This would essentially be the kiss of death for independent restaurant ownership.”

Jonathan Small, president of the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs (OCPA) conservative think tank, said if the minimum wage exceeds market value, “it forces employers to reduce hiring, shift to automation and/or move jobs to more business friendly climates.” Passage of SQ 832, he said, “would yank that ladder out of the hands of the low-income workers, leaving them not only poor but with far less opportunity.”

What Are the Arguments Proponents Use in Favor of SQ 832?

Supporters argue that Oklahoma’s minimum wage, being stuck at $7.25 an hour, is not enough to pay for such basic living expenses as groceries, gas and housing. At $7.25 an hour, they say it adds up to only $20 a year more than the federal poverty level. Sixteen years ago, it was 40% more than the minimum.

They cite calculations from the Economic Policy Institute that say 319,000 working Oklahomans and more than 200,000 children would directly benefit from increasing the minimum wage. Workers would have more spendable income, small businesses would have less turnover, poverty rates would decrease, eviction rates would fall, state and local economies would improve, and communities would be strengthened. An increased hourly wage ensures that workers entrusted with our loved ones, such as home health care workers, childcare staff and teachers’ assistants, could make a basic living.

They also point to studies that find that raising the minimum wage has little or no effect on employment levels and that any increase in consumer prices has typically not been large enough to drive consumers away. The phased-in approach also provides businesses with a definitive timeline to adjust their plans, making SQ 832 a “win-win” for employers as well as employees.

What Are the Arguments Against SQ 832?

For starters, there’s nothing gradual about the mandated hourly wage increases that would occur if SQ 832 becomes law. The minimum wage would more than double in just three years, from its current $7.25 to $15.00 per hour in 2029. Worse, wages would continue to be forced upward on an annual basis, reaching up to $35.61 in 15 years and continuing higher from there. Most states that have minimum wage laws at least don’t have the automatic, built-in inflation mechanism as part of their law.

Businesses, especially smaller ones operating on thin margins, would have to fire people, reduce their hours and/or cut their benefits. They would think twice about expanding, unless they find ways around the law, such as automation. Being a kiosk salesperson might become a great business opportunity if SQ 832 becomes law. Many small enterprises, such as restaurants, home health care clinics, gas stations, grocery stores and day care centers would have to close or decide never to open. Out-of-state operations would think twice about coming to Oklahoma, since their employee costs would be greater than in most states.

A report from the National Federal of Independent Business describes how SQ 832 would harm Oklahoma’s economy. Over a 10-year period, an estimated 16,112 jobs would be lost, including 9,651 in small business. The total economic loss would approach $700 million, with $297 million of that borne by small business.

There were 18,000 California fast food workers who lost their jobs since the state increased their minimum wage for that sector to $20.00 an hour in 2023. Nearly 89% of restaurant operators have reduced employee hours, 35% have reduced employee benefits and menu prices surged more than 14.5% in the first year after the law’s passage. Adjusting for cost of living differences, California’s $20 an hour is comparable to a $14 an hour wage in Oklahoma – less than the forced increase we would get in 2029.

California is not an outlier. New York City, Oregon and Washington have seen their labor markets deteriorate since they passed minimum wage laws. Researchers David Neumark and Peter Shirley have reviewed minimum wage studies for 30 years, and found that 80% identified greater unemployment after states increased their minimum wage. People most negatively affected have been the young, the less skilled, the less educated, and minorities – which have caused some critics to label such laws as discriminatory, racist, or at a minimum, a cruel way to shrink opportunity for those who most need it.

In Conclusion

Oklahoma hasn’t needed minimum wage laws to see employee economic improvement. The number of people in this state making $7.25 an hour has fallen from 29,000 to 17,000 between 2015 and 2024. Plus, due to statewide economic growth and productivity improvement, hourly wages have moved up faster here than in states that have adopted SQ 832-type laws. In other words, businesses have freely chosen to raise employee wages on their own, rather than being told when to do so by the government.

Many, or perhaps most pro-SQ 832 people, think they’re being compassionate when they advocate for a mandatory minimum wage increase. In fact, they are correct in that a few would benefit from passage of this law. But it would come at a severe cost to others, and spill over into many unintended areas.

This whole issue boils down to basic economics, to supply and demand. If government raises the price of labor, the demand for it will decrease. Less demand means more unemployment, fewer benefits, more homelessness, more government dependence, higher prices, and fewer businesses to serve the public.

Advocates are correct that many Oklahomans struggle to make ends meet. But there are better policy tools available than meddling in the personal choices of free individuals. These include reducing the number of jobs that require occupational licensing, expanding the earned income tax credit, improving education opportunities, and reducing regulatory burdens to employment and business operations.

Don’t be fooled by good intentions if they lead to harmful consequences. Vote No on SQ 832.