By Constitution Staff

Even before the first vote is cast in the 2010 elections, Republicans are already assured of maintaining control of one chamber of the Legislature and only a few seats away from control in the other chamber. Not only is continued Republican control almost certain, most observers expect the GOP to reinforce their numbers.

A number of legislators were not able to run for reelection as a result of term-limits. That list includes the Speaker of the House, Chris Benge, and Senate Pro Tempore, Glenn Coffee. Other legislators are seeking higher office rather than running for reelection to the Legislature.

It is mathematically impossible for Democrats to regain control of the state Senate. The state GOP currently holds a 26-22 majority in the 48 member chamber. Senators serve four-year terms, with half of the seats up for election each election cycle. The odd numbered districts will not be on the ballot until 2012. Republicans hold 15 of those seats, with Democrats holding the other nine.

The twenty-four even numbered districts are up for election this year. Thirteen of those are currently held by Democrats, and eleven by Republicans. Four Republicans have already been elected because they had no opposition. Five more Republicans will be elected in the Primary Elections, because no Democrats nor Independents are running. When added to the 15 Republican seats not up for election this year, the GOP is guaranteed to have 24 seats.

Meanwhile, only three Democrats have already been elected because they drew no opponents, and only one seat had no Republican filings, assuring Democrats will have the seat in the Primary Election. When added to the Democrat seats not up this year, Democrats will go into the General Election guaranteed to have only 13 seats. Even if Democrats won all of the 11 seats in contention on the General Election ballot, the Senate would be in a 24-24 tie for control. But, Republicans are expected to win at least enough of those seats to maintain their current edge, and picking up several additional seats is considered likely. Republican gains in the Senate could make significant changes in the operation of the upper chamber. In the last legislative session, Senate Republicans needed support from Senate Democrats to pass the emergency clause of bills, which requires 32 votes. Also, GOP members may have allowed Republicans to override more of Gov. Henry's vetoes. But, that may not be needed if a Republican is elected governor.

It is much the same story for the House chamber, although it is theoretically possible for Democrats to receive a majority. All 101 House seats are up for election each election cycle. The GOP currently holds a 62-39 majority in the House. Because they drew no opponents, 47 members of the House, 33 Republicans and 14 Democrats, have already been elected. Four Republicans and three Democrats will be elected in the Primary Elections, because they have no opposition in the General Election. Therefore, the GOP goes into the General Election guaranteed to have at least 37 seats compared to 17 for the Democrats. There are 47 seats at stake in the General Election, but no Democrats filed for two of the seats (Republicans only challenged by an Independent), and one seat does not have a Republican challenger. It is expected that Republicans will at least maintain their current level and could make gains.